Economic growth in Africa has outpaced political reform and governments have so far failed to tackle key structural issues, according to Control Risks, a business risk consultancy.

In its latest RiskMap report, which was launched at an event for East Africa’s business leaders in Nairobi, Kenya, the firm said that “2015 will start to show some of the political limits to sub-Saharan Africa’s growth story”.

Daniel Heal, Managing Director East Africa at Control Risks, said: “Governments have so far failed to tackle key structural issues and growth usually occurs despite government rather than because of it. Kenya, as one of the best-governed countries in the region, is running big deficits and debt loads will double by 2017.”

According to the report, the likelihood of resource-based conflict in East Africa is low.

Heal said that these industries are too early in their development to provoke conflict.

“There is not yet any oil to divert, and gas is harder to criminalize. If anything, the risk is that the energy industry is entering remote regions with legacy conflicts relating to control of land, access to water, and grazing rights, as in Kenya,” he said.

“Large inward investment in East African energy is exciting, but we should remain circumspect. It is too early to say how key issues will play out, from distribution of benefits to legislative and regulatory changes in the pipeline,” he added.

According to the findings, East Africa piracy levels will remain low, reflecting the decline in Somali hijack-for-ransom piracy since mid-2011.

“It is anticipated that Somalia’s Al-Shabab will lose further territory in 2015, retreating into guerrilla-style hit-and-run attacks in Somalia and potentially against major regional cities such as Nairobi, Mombasa, Kampala and Addis Ababa,” said Heal.

Overall, terrorism will continue to make headlines in Africa in 2015, but it will remain local.

RiskMap is a guide and a key reference point for policy makers and business leaders seeking to plot global trends over the coming year.

RiskMap highlights the most significant underlying trends in global risk and security, and provides a detailed view from the markets that will matter most in 2015.