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African economies to face $11.4trln investment shortfall by 2040

Africa Global Funds
Nov. 14, 2014, midnight
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Africa has the opportunity to quadruple living standards by 2040, but to do so it will need to find $11.4trln in extra investment over that period, according to the Capital Economics’s report commissioned by Jersey Finance.

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Africa has the opportunity to quadruple living standards by 2040, but to do so it will need to find $11.4trln in extra investment over that period, according to the Capital Economics’s report commissioned by Jersey Finance.

Mark Pragnell of Capital Economics and principal author of the report, said: “The continent must address its lack of infrastructure, buildings, machinery and other physical capital. Its capital stock will need to increase six fold by 2040 if is to realise its potential. It will require a cumulative investment of $85trln - equivalent to one year’s gross domestic product for the entire world - by then.”

While Africa has 15% of the world’s population, it generates just 4% of global output.

The Capital Economics’s report argues that Africa is on the verge of a demographic dividend.

While other continents face ageing populations, Africa’s working age population is expected to double to 1.2 billion over the next 30 years.

According to the report, to support this and quadruple GDP by 2040, Africa will need to invest $85 trln, about 100% of current annual global GDP.

At current levels of investment, it will fall $11.4trln short of that.

Capital Economics estimate that, combined, aid, domestic profits and local governments will only be able to plug 48% of this gap.

The remainder of $6.1 trln will have to come from foreign direct investment (FDI).

According to Geoff Cook, CEO of Jersey Finance, international financial centers such as Jersey have a fundamental part to play in facilitating FDI.

Cook said that Jersey is well placed to make an important contribution to the economic growth Africa needs.

“As such Jersey is in a prime position to offer the continent the assistance it needs - from access to a greater amount of investment funds to establishing environments conducive to entrepreneurship – Jersey can offer a safe business environment while ultimately helping Africa fulfil its economic potential,” said Cook.

Nevertheless, the report said Jersey must work to increase its, currently, “small” business with Africa, which amounts to between 1% and 1.8% of total investments into the island, and primarily comes from South Africa and Kenya.

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